Why do the export economies of Asia – China, Korea and Japan – respond differently to U.S. protectionism?
We are witnessing the loosening of the international trade order as the U.S. initiated trade war against its trading partners intensifies. At such a pivotal point, this book aims to explain why China, South Korea and Japan’s responses to U.S. protectionist pressures are different. This book argues that the East Asian states responses have not been uniform, not merely owing to the geopolitical underpinnings of the bilateral relationships, but because of the institutional variance in trade policymaking in each of the countries. For the longest time, scholars have relied on the existence of bilateral security alliances in order to gauge policy responses from U.S. trading partners in times of U.S. economic pressures. This book offers an alternative narrative of institutionalism for predicting state responses, and argues through a two-step process that involves a) identifying the dominant player in the trade policymaking based on the levels of bureaucratic autonomy, and b) deciphering the policy preferences of the dominant player in each political system. My central argument in this book is that if we are to forecast the behavior of states in the trade war, relying solely on the geopolitical dimension for analysis is far from the complete picture, especially at a time when geopolitics and geoeconomics go hand in hand. Moreover, the containment logic that the U.S. continues to impose is losing momentum and is not likely to result in success, because times have changed.
This book manuscript is enriched by a 2019-2020 Next Generation Researchers Grant of the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2019S1A5B5A07106479). It is based on a decade of on-site research consisting of interviews with government officials, policy analysts, lawyers, academics, and business persons in addition to archival research in Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, and Washington, DC (2010-20). It is currently under review at two university presses.
Chapter 0. |
PREFACE: The U.S. and Them Populism and the moment of truth in 2016 Ecosystems of the future Monolithic vs. Multipolar (G-0) World |
Chapter 1. |
INTRO: The U.S. Plays the Old Game Dealing with the Elephant in the Room The Puzzle: Why do they respond differently? Policy Relevance Argument: Institutional Variance in Trade Policymaking Research Design, Data and Methodology Contributions and avenues for further research Outline of the Book |
Chapter 2. |
HISTORY: How the Old, the New, and the Final Target came to Respond U.S. Pressures 2.0: Geopolitics mixed with Geoeconomics The Old Target Responds: Japan The New Target Responds: South Korea The Final Target Responds: China Playing the Game of Geopolitics with Geoeconomics |
Chapter 3. |
ARGUMENT: Predict Policy Moves by Institutional Variance Theorizing Institutional Variance in Trade Policymaking and Responses Limitations of Existing Explanations on Bureaucratic Decisionmaking The Framework of Institutional Variance in Responses -Political Systems -Bureaucratic Autonomy -Dominant Players -Policy Preferences The Key to Utilizing Institutional Variance for Policy Prediction |
Chapter 4. |
RESPONSES: Varying Degrees in Retaliatory Measures China: “Strike back hard.” -Political System: Authoritarian -Bureaucratic Autonomy: None, only empowered -Dominant Players: The Party and the CFEAC -Policy Preferences: Escalation & Desperate resistance South Korea: “Prove ’em wrong.” -Political System: Presidential -Bureaucratic Autonomy: Some but subservient -Dominant Players: The V.I.P. and presidential aides -Policy Preferences: Rebuttal & Defensive Refutation Japan: “Settle than file.” -Political System: Parliamentarian -Bureaucratic Autonomy: High as a technocracy -Dominant Players: The Technocrats of MOF & METI supported by the PM -Policy Preferences: Acquiescence & Selective adjudication |
Chapter 5. |
CASES: Trade Wars & Currency Conflicts in Action
Trade Remedies: Antidumping, Countervailing and Safeguard Duty Levies
China: CCP and the CFEAC
South Korea: KTC beholden to MOTIE, subservient to the V.I.P.
Japan: Delegation to the private sector and outliers
WTO Disputes: Consultations, Panel Reports, Appellate Body Rulings and Implementation
China: CCP wielding power via MOC
South Korea: The V.I.P. Veto Power vis-à-vis MOTIE
Japan: MOF and METI and the challenges for change
Currency Appreciation Pressures: U.S. Treasury Designations, Pressures and Central Bank Independence
China: The PBOC in line with CFEAC guidelines
South Korea: MOSF vs. BOK responses
Japan: MOF vs. BOJ responses
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Chapter 6. |
STAKES: Inside Today’s Trade Wars Tariffs – Trade remedy and WTO disputes Currencies – Beggar-thy-neighbor policies and digital currencies Tech – Data, Chips, 5G and AI Energy – From fossil fuel, nuclear to renewables Cyber – The new warfare on the Internet |
Chapter 7. |
TAKEAWAYS: The ‘So What?’ Question Recognizing the New Normal of U.S. Pressures Utilizing Institutional Variance as the Policy Move Predictor Strategies for the Future based on Anticipated Responses |
Chapter 8. |
CONCLUSION: It’s Who Decides What That Matters Focusing on Dominant Players in Trade wars and Currency Conflict Geopolitical Clashes by Strongmen Geoeconomic Territories – BRI Initiative by China vs. the EPN by the U.S. Future Research - Moving the Stage to Europe for the Rivalry of Pressures (Institutional Variance in European responses - Germany, France, and the UK - to Faustian Bargains with China and U.S. Pressures since Brexit) |
Upcoming Book Project Programs, Workshops and Meetings
- Research Information Service of the National Library of Korea (RINK), Academic Book Publication Program (July 25, 2019-July 25, 2020-extended to November 25, 2020)
Past Book Project Programs, Workshops and Meetings
- Harvard IGLP Scholars Workshop, Book Prospectus review with faculty advisers (Bangkok: January 6-10, 2019)
- APSA Annual Meeting and Convention, Book Exhibition and Meetings with Editors (Boston: August 30-September 2, 2018)
- Presentation of Chapter 1, International Relations and East Asia (IREA) Online Colloquium via Google Hangouts (February 6, 2018)
- 2017 Wesleyan Conference on East Asia (Spring 2017)
- APSA Annual Meeting and Convention, Book Exhibition and Meetings with Editors (Philadelphia: September 1-4, 2016; San Francisco: September 1-3, 2017)
- International Publishing Workshop, Asia Pacific Early Career Researchers Program, ISA Asia-Pacific Conference (June 24, 2016)
