“With everyone’s attention focused on North Korea, wondering what its next provacative move will be, not enough attention has been devoted to South Korea’s internal political situation and its possible effect on the on-going drama on the penisula.

“President Lee Myung-bak’s government is the most conservative, nationalistic one in Seoul for quite some time. Both official and public opinion in South Korea seem to be moving toward a position of  ’enough is enough.’ Pyongyang’s tried-and-true strategy of increasing military tension on the peninsula as a means of extracting economic aid from the south, and then agreeing to talks to reduce the tension, may have run its course.

“The refusal of the North Korean negotiators at Panmunjom to apologize, or even acknowledge responsibility, for the sinking of a South Korean warship last March and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in November, does not bode well for the success of this new round of talks.

“The question is, how long will South Korea — under pressure from what seems to be an increasingly angry public — be willing to receive these body blows to its national sovereignty and security without some kind of retaliatory response?”

Contact William Keylor, 617-358-0197, wrkeylor@bu.edu

Michael Corgan (contact 617-353-3553, mcorgan@bu.edu)

“There are a couple of things to keep in mind.

“First, much of what goes on in the North has to do with the pending succession crisis.

“Next, the South is trying very hard to assert itself, even against Japan, as a major actor in the region in the face of China’s growing prominence. This is one way to do it.

“Finally, a speculation: The North must be aware of how the U.S. and Israel teamed up to retard Iran’s nuclear weapons development. How are they fixed to handle such a cyber assault now? One surely must be in the works.”

William Keylor (contact 617-358-0197, wrkeylor@bu.edu)

“Since the early 1990s, North Korea used the threat of developing a nuclear capability to extract economic benefits from South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.  This strategy of nuclear blackmail was actually quite successful for many years. Now, after suffering two attacks last year, South Korea is again willing to engage in negotiations.

“Based on previous experience, Pyongyang will demand extensive economic assistance, primarily heating oil but several other items as well. If it receives it, North Korea will lie low for a while and, when the economic situation continues to deteriorate, it will renew its belligerency in order to pressure its foreign suppliers to give more.

“If this nuclear blackmail fails to secure the needed aid, then it will up the ante, perhaps by testing  another longer-range missile, or by conducting another nuclear test. This is a desparate government facing a looming succession crisis as well as economic conditions that would lead to a popular upheaval in practically every other country in the world.”