Comments for Izvestia on French Presidential Election

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I was quoted in an April 21, 2017 in the Russian outlet Izvestia for an article entitled “France Solves an Equation with Four Unknowns.

Here are my comments to the reporter:

There is likely to be higher turn out in the first round, if only because there has been so much build up with real debates between the many different candidates.  Macron and Melenchon are most likely to attract undecided voters.  Le Pen voters have been committed for quite a while, even if her rhetoric has ramped up in recent days, and may enable her to pick up disenchanted Fillon (center right) voters.

Anything is possible in this race.  The question is, if Melenchon is the second man, is Le Pen the first woman?  That is what most analysts suggest, and established politicians fear, because they think that will mean that Le Pen is elected.  ‘Strategic’ thinking among voters may mean that they pull back from Melenchon in the end, and vote Macron.  If the contest is Macron/Le Pen, Macron wins.  If, however, Fillon comes from behind, to make it a Fillon/Le Pen race, then the abstention on the left could mean a Le Pen victory.

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