<\/p>\n
2025<\/strong><\/p>\n Ash, Arlene S, Matthew J. Alcusky, Randall P. Ellis, Meagan J. Sabatino, Frances E. Podolsky,\u00a0Meghan I,\u00a0Rafeya\u00a0Raquib,\u00a0Paul R.\u00a0Shafer,\u00a0Katherine\u00a0Hempstead,\u00a0Randall P.\u00a0Ellis,\u00a0Andrew C.\u00a0Stokes, (2025) \u201cFactors Associated With Semaglutide Initiation Among Adults With Obesity\u201d JAMA Network Open<\/em>.\u00a08(1):e2455222. doi:10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2024.55222<\/a><\/p>\n 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n Andriola, Corinne, Randall P Ellis, Jeffrey J Siracuse, Alex Hoagland, Tzu-Chun Kuo, Heather E Hsu, Allan Walkey, Karen E Lasser, Arlene S Ash (2024).\u00a0 \u201cA Novel Machine Learning Algorithm for Creating Risk-adjusted Payment Formulas\u201d JAMA Health Forum<\/em>, Apr 5;5(4):e240625. doi.org\/10.1001\/jamahealthforum.2024.0625<\/a>.<\/p>\n van Kleef, Richard C., Mieke Reuser, Thomas G. McGuire, John Armstrong, Konstantin Beck, Shuli Brammli-Greenberg, Randall P. Ellis, Francesco Paolucci, Erik Schokkaert, Juergen Wasem, (2024)\u00a0 Scope and Incentives for Risk Selection in Health Insurance Markets With Regulated Competition: A Conceptual Framework and International Comparison. <\/a>Medical Care Research and Review<\/i>. 2024;0(0). doi:10.1177\/10775587231222584<\/a><\/p>\n Acquatella, Angelique, Tianxu Chen, Randall P Ellis, and Taylor Watson (2024). “Provider Payment Systems and Incentives<\/a>” in Stella R. Quah, (Ed.) International Encyclopedia of Public Health, Third Edition. org\/10.1016\/B978-0-323-99967-0.00269-6<\/a><\/p>\n 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n Ellis Randall P, Alex Hoagland, and Angelique Acquatella. (2023)\u00a0 Managed competition in the United States: How well is it promoting equity and efficiency?<\/a> Health Economics, Policy and Law<\/i>. Published online 2024:1-15. doi:10.1017\/S174413312300035X<\/a><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P, Heather E Hsu, Jeffrey J Siracuse, Allan J Walkey, Karen E Lasser, Brian C Jacobson, Corinne Andriola, Alex Hoagland, Ying Liu, Chenlu Song, Tzu-Chun Kuo, and Arlene S Ash (2022) “Development and Assessment of a New Framework for Disease Surveillance, Prediction, and Risk Adjustment: <\/span>The Diagnostic Items Classification System<\/span>.<\/a>” JAMA Health Forum<\/em>. 2022;3(3):e220276. doi:10.1001\/jamahealthforum.2022.0276.<\/span><\/p>\n Nishijima, Marislei, Randall P Ellis, and Regina C Cati (2022). “Primary healthcare effects of a well-designed anti-corruption program<\/a>” World Development Perspectives.<\/em> 25, 100399, ISSN 2452-2929, doi.org\/10.1016\/j.wdp.2022.100399<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P, (2022) Comment on \u201cSustainable Health Financing for COVID \u201019 Preparedness and Response in Asia and the Pacific\u201d Asian Economic Policy Review<\/em> 17(1):157-158 Jan 2022. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/aepr.12360<\/a><\/p>\n 2021<\/strong><\/p>\n Siracuse, Jeffrey J, Jonathan Woodson, Randall P Ellis, Alik Farber, Sean P. Roddy, Bindu Kalesan, Scott R Levin, Nicholas H Osborne, and Jayakanth Srinivasan. “Intermittent claudication treatment patterns in the commercially insured non-Medicare population<\/a>.” Journal of Vascular Surgery<\/i> 74, no. 2 (2021): 499-504.<\/p>\n 2020<\/strong><\/p>\n Ellis,\u00a0Randall P, Heather E Hsu, Chenlu\u00a0Song, Tzu-Chun Kuo, Bruno Martins, Jeffrey J Siracuse, MD, Ying Liu, Arlene S Ash, (2020) \u201cDiagnostic Category Prevalence in 3 Classification Systems Across the Transition to the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification\u201d <\/a>JAMA Network Open<\/em>. April 8. 3(4), e202280-e202280.<\/p>\n 2019<\/strong><\/p>\n Walter, Angela W, Ellis Randall P, Yuan Yiyang (2019) \u201cHealth care utilization and spending among privately insured children with medical complexity.<\/a>\u201d Journal of Child Health Care<\/em> 23(2):213-231 June.<\/p>\n 2018<\/strong><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., Bruno Martins, and Sherri Rose (2018) Risk adjustment for health plan payment<\/a>.\u00a0 Chapter 3 in Thomas G. McGuire and Richard C. van Kleef (eds.)\u00a0 Risk adjustment, risk sharing and premium regulation in health insurance markets: Theory and Practice<\/em>. Elsevier Press. Posted version is the November 7, 2017 working paper<\/p>\n Layton, Timothy J., Randall P. Ellis, Thomas G. McGuire, and Richard C. van Kleef (2018) Evaluating the performance of health plan payment systems<\/a>. Chapter 5 in Thomas G. McGuire and Richard C. van Kleef (eds.)\u00a0 Risk Adjustment, Risk Sharing and Premium Regulation in Health Insurance Markets: Theory and Practice.<\/em> Elsevier Press. Posted version is the February 2018 working paper.<\/p>\n 2017<\/strong><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. , Bruno Martins, and Wenjia Zhu (2017) Demand elasticities and service selection incentives among competing private health plans.<\/a> Journal of Health Economics. 56: 352-367.<\/em><\/p>\n Layton, Timothy J., Randall P. Ellis, Thomas G. McGuire, Richard C. van Kleef (2017) Measuring efficiency of health plan payment systems in managed competition health insurance markets<\/a>” Journal of Health Economics<\/em>. 56: 237-255.<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., Bruno Martins and Wenjia Zhu (2017) Health care demand elasticities by type of service<\/a>. Journal of Health Economics<\/em>. 55:232-242.<\/p>\n Ash, Arlene S., Eric O. Mick,Randall P. Ellis, Catarina I. Kiefe, Jeroan J. Allison, and Melissa A. Clark, (2017) Social Determinants of Health in Managed Care Payment Formulas<\/a>. Journal of the American Medical Association – Internal Medicine<\/em>.\u00a0 Published online August 07, 2017. doi:10.1001\/jamainternmed.2017.3317<\/a>. \u00a0\u00a0 Supplementary material.<\/a><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., Sara S. Bachman, Hui Ren Tan,\u00a0 (2017). Refining our Understanding of Value-Based Insurance Design and High Cost Sharing on Children<\/a>. Pediatrics. <\/em>May, 139, S136-145. DOI: 10.1542\/peds.2016-2786H<\/em><\/p>\n 2016<\/strong><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. and Wenjia Zhu (2016) Health Plan Type Variations in Spells of Health Care Treatment.<\/a> American Journal of Health Economics.<\/em> Fall, 2(4): 399-430.\u00a0 doi:10.1162\/ajhe a 00056 Supplementary program: Ellis, Randall P. and Wenjia Zhu (2015) “Spellmaker2015 SAS program for creating spells of treatment.” <\/a>March<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., Bruno Martins, and Michelle McKinnon Miller (2016) Provider Payment Methods and Incentives<\/a> in\u00a0 Stella Quah (ed.), International Encyclopedia of Public Health, Second edition.<\/p>\n Ellen Montz, Tim Layton, Alisa B. Busch, Randall P. Ellis, Sherri Rose, and Thomas G. McGuire (2016) Risk-Adjustment Simulation: Plans May Have Incentives To Distort Mental Health And Substance Use Coverage.<\/a> Health Affairs<\/em>. doi: 10.1377\/hlthaff.2015.1668 (June) 35:6 1022-1028.<\/p>\n Ash, Arlene, Randall P. Ellis (2016) Commentary on \u201cComparison of the properties of regression and categorical risk-adjustment models<\/a>\u201d Journal of Ambulatory Care Management<\/em>. April\/June. 39(2):97-183.<\/p>\n Cid,\u00a0 Camilo, Randall P. Ellis; Ver\u00f3nica Vargas; Juergen Wasem; Lorena Prieto (2016) Global Risk-Adjusted Payment Models,<\/a> in Richard Scheffler, (ed) Handbook of Global Health Economics and Public Policy<\/em>. 11(1):311-362.<\/p>\n 2015<\/strong><\/p>\n Chen, Jing,\u00a0 Randall P. Ellis,\u00a0 Katherine H. Toro,\u00a0 and Arlene S. Ash\u00a0 (2015) Mispricing in Medicare Advantage Risk Adjustment.<\/a> Inquiry.<\/em><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., Shenyi Jiang,\u00a0 and Willard G. Manning (2015) Optimal health insurance for multiple goods and time periods.<\/a> Journal of Health Economics<\/em>.\u00a0 41(May): 89-106<\/span>. http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jhealeco.2015.01.007<\/p>\n 2014<\/strong><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., Tianxu Chen, and Calvin E. Luscombe (2014) “Comparisons of Health Insurance Systems in Developed Countries”<\/a> in Anthony J. Culyer (ed) Encyclopedia of Health Economics<\/em>, Elsevier Press.<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., and Timothy Layton (2014) “Risk Selection and Risk Adjustment”<\/a> in Anthony J. Culyer (ed) Encyclopedia of Health Economics<\/em>, Elsevier Press.<\/p>\n 2013<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n Vats, Sonal, Arlene S. Ash,\u00a0 and Randall P. Ellis (2013) “Bending the Cost Curve? Results from a Comprehensive Primary Care Payment Pilot.”<\/a> Medical Care. <\/em>51(11):964-969, November 2013.<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. and Juan Gabriel Fernandez (2013) “Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas.”<\/a> International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health<\/em>. 10, 5299-5332<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., Denzil G. Fiebig, Meliyanni Johar, Glenn Jones, Elizabeth Savage (2013) \u201cExplaining Health Care Expenditure Variation: Large Sample Evidence Using Linked Survey and Health Administrative Data<\/a>\u201d Health Economics<\/em>. 22: 1093\u20131110.<\/p>\n 2012<\/strong><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., and\u00a0 Ash,\u00a0Arlene S. (2012) “Payments in Support of Effective Primary Care for Chronic Conditions.”<\/a> Nordic Economic Policy Review<\/em>.<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., (2012),<\/a> Five Questions for Health Economists.<\/a> International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics.<\/em><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P, Jiang, Shenyi, and Kuo, Tzu-chun, (2013)\u00a0 “Does service-level spending show evidence of selection across health plan types?”<\/a> Applied Economics<\/em>.45(13):1701-1712.<\/p>\n Ash, Arlene and Randall P. Ellis (2012) Risk-Adjusted Payment and Performance Assessment for Primary Care<\/a>. Medical Care<\/em>.<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. and Ash, Arlene and\u00a0 (2012) Risk-Adjusted Payment and Performance Assessment for Primary Care<\/a>, Supplementary Digital Content. Medical Care<\/em>.<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. (2012) \u201cRisk Adjustment<\/a>\u201d in New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics<\/em>.<\/p>\n 2011<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong>Eggleston, Karen N,\u00a0 Randall P. Ellis, and\u00a0 Mingshan Lu, (2011) “Risk Adjustment and Prevention<\/a>” Canadian Journal of Economics<\/em>.<\/p>\n Song Zirui S, Dana G Safran, Bruce E Landon, Yulie He, Randall P Ellis, Robert E Mechanic, Mathew P Day, and Michael E. Chernew (2011) \u201cHealth Care Spending and Quality in Year 1 of the Alternative Quality Contract<\/a>\u201d New England Journal of Medicine<\/em>. July 13, 2011 (10.1056\/NEJMsa1101416)<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., and Ching-to Albert Ma. (2011) \u201cHealth insurance, cost expectations, and job turnover.\u201d <\/a>Health Economics<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n 2008<\/strong><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. and Elizabeth Savage, (2008) “Run for Cover Now or Later? The impact of premiums, threats and deadlines on supplementary private health insurance in Australia”<\/a> European Journal of Health Economics<\/span>.<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. and Michelle M. Miller (2008) “Provider payment methods and incentives” <\/a>in Heggenhougen, Kris (ed.) \u201cEncyclopedia of Public Health\u201d (reprinted in Guy Carrin, Kent Buse, Harald Kristian Heggenhougen, Stella R. Quah (eds.) (2009) Health Systems Policy, Finance, and Organization, (New York: Elsevier)<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. (2008) “Risk adjustment in health care markets: concepts and applications”<\/a> in Lu, Mingshan, and Jonnson, Egon, (eds.) Financing Health Care: New Ideas for a Changing Society.<\/span><\/span> Wiley-VCH publishers Weinheim, Germany.<\/p>\n 2007<\/strong> Ellis, Randall P. and Manning, Willard G. (2007) Optimal health insurance for prevention and treatment<\/a>, Journal of Health Economics<\/span>. 26: 1128\u20131150.<\/p>\n Antioch, Kathryn, Ellis, Randall P., Gillett, Steve, Borovnicar, Daniel, and Marshall, Ric (2007) “Risk Adjustment Policy Options for Casemix Funding: International Lessons in Financing Reform”<\/a> European Journal of Health Economics<\/span>. DOI 10.1007\/s10198-006-0020-7<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. and McGuire, Thomas G. (2007) “Predictability and predictiveness in health care spending” <\/a>Journal of Health Economics<\/span>. 26:25\u201348.<\/p>\n 2005<\/strong> 2004<\/strong> 2002<\/strong> Zhao, Yang, Ash, Arlene S. Ellis, Randall P., and Slaughter James P., (2002) “Disease burden profiles: An emerging tool for managing managed care”<\/a> Health Care Management Science<\/span>, August, 5(3): 211-219.<\/p>\n Shen, Yujing, and Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “Cost minimizing risk adjustment”<\/a> Journal of Health Economics<\/span>. 21(3): 515-530.<\/p>\n Shen Yujing, and Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “How profitable is risk selection? A comparison of four risk adjustment models” <\/a>Health Economics<\/span>, 11(2): 165-174<\/p>\n 2001<\/strong> Ellis, Randall P. (2001) “Formal risk adjustment by private employers”<\/a> Inquiry<\/span>. 38(3) Fall, 299-309.<\/p>\n Yu, Wei, Ellis, Randall P., and Ash, Arlene S. .(2001) “Risk selection in the Massachusetts state employee health insurance program” <\/a>Health Care Management Science<\/span>. 4, pp. 281-287.<\/p>\n Zhao, Yang,\u00a0 Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., et al. (2001) “Measuring population health risks using inpatient diagnoses and outpatient pharmacy data” <\/a>Health Services Research<\/span>. 26(6) Part II December: 180-193.<\/p>\n 2000<\/strong> Chawla, Mukesh, and Ellis, Randall P., (2000) \u201cDemand side analysis of health care financing and delivery in Niger.\u201d<\/a> Health Policy and Planning<\/span>. 15(1):76-84.<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., Alam, Moneer, and Gupta, Indrani , (2000) \u201cHealth insurance in India: prognosis and prospectus.\u201d<\/a> Economics and Political Weekly<\/span>, January 22, pp 207-217.<\/p>\n Khandker, Rahaul K, Dulski ,Jane D., Kilpatrick, Jeffrey B., Ellis, Randall P., Mitchell, Janet B., and Baine, William B. (2000) “A Decision model and cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer screening and surveillance guidelines for average-risk adults”<\/a>. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care<\/span>. 16(3):799-810.<\/p>\n Pope, Gregory C., Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., et al. (2000) “Principal inpatient diagnostic cost group models for Medicare risk adjustment”<\/a> Health Care Financing Review<\/span>, Spring 21(3): 93-118.<\/p>\n Van de Ven, Wynand\u00a0 P.M.M. and Ellis, Randall P. (2000) “Risk adjustment in competitive health plan markets”<\/a> Chapter 14 in A.J. Culyer and J.P. Newhouse, (ed.) Handbook in Health Economics<\/span>, North Holland. pp. 755-845.<\/p>\n Working papers<\/strong> posted here are intended for review and comments only.<\/em><\/p>\n Randall Ellis (2023) “The role of incentives at the design stage of risk adjusters: dos and don\u2019ts”<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P., and Giovanna Marcolongo (2020). The Early Toll of Covid-19 on Job and Income Losses: Vulnerability by Occupation<\/a>. Working paper. April 17.<\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P, and Izabela Jelovac (2019). “Movie theater popcorn pricing, the physician’s Hippocratic Oath, and healthcare innovation<\/a>” Working paper.<\/p>\n Luo, Siyi, Wenjia Zhu, and Randall P. Ellis (2017) An Iterative Approach to Estimation with Multiple High-Dimensional Fixed Effects<\/a>. March 23, 2017. Supplementary SAS program:<\/p>\n Luo, Siyi, Wenjia Zhu, and Randall P. Ellis (2016) SAS TSLSFECLUS.SAS Macro code<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ReadMe.pdf file<\/a><\/p>\n Vidal-Fernandez, Marian, Denise Doiron, and Randall P. Ellis (2017) The Effects (?) of Artificially Fluoridated Water on Birth Outcomes. April.<\/p>\n Layton, Timothy J., Randall P. Ellis, Thomas McGuire (2015) Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems, <\/a>NBER Working paper. July 12.<\/em><\/p>\n Ellis, Randall P. (2016) The US Should Ban or Heavily Tax Weapons Designed for Mass Shootings<\/a>. August 22, 2016.<\/p>\n
\nEanet, Eric O. Mick (2025) \u201cSupporting Primary Care for Medically and Socially Complex
\nPatients in Medicaid Managed Care\u201d. JAMA Network Open<\/em>. 2025;8(2):e2458170.
\ndoi:10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2024.58170<\/a><\/p>\n
\nEllis, Randall P., and Vidal-Fernandez, Marian (2007) “Activity-based payments and reforms of the English hospital payment system”<\/a> Health Economics, Policy and Law. 2: 435\u2013444.<\/p>\n
\nZhao, Yang, Ash, Arlene S., Ellis, Randall P., Ayanian, John Z., Pope, Gregory C., Bowen, Bruce and Weyuker, Lori (2005)
\n “Predicting pharmacy costs and other medical costs using diagnoses and drug claims”<\/a> Medical Care<\/span>, January 4(31): 34-43.<\/p>\n
\nPope, Gregory C,Kautter, John, Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., Ayanian, John Z.,. Iezzoni, Lisa I. Ingber, Melvin J., Levy, Jesse M,. and Robst, John (2004) “Risk adjustment of Medicare capitation payments using the CMS-HCC model.”<\/a> Health Care Financing Review<\/span>.Summer 25(4): 119-141.<\/p>\n
\nEllis, Randall P. (2002) \u201cLes syst\u00e8mes de tarification des h\u00f4pitaux aux \u00c9tats-Unis: g\u00e9n\u00e9ralit\u00e9s et d\u00e9bat sure les probl\u00e8mes des politiques actuelles.\u201d (Hospital payment in the United States: An overview and discussion of current policy issues) in Mireille Elbaum, ed., La tarification \u00e0 la pathologie: les le\u00e7ons de l\u2019exp\u00e9rience \u00e9trang\u00e8re<\/span>, DREES conference volume, Paris France. July. In English<\/a>. In French<\/a><\/p>\n
\nAsh, Arlene, Zhao,Yang, Ellis,Randall P., and Kramer, Marilyn Schlein (2001) “Finding future high-cost cases: Comparing prior cost versus diagnosis-based methods”<\/a> Health Services Research <\/span> 26(6) Part II December: 194-206.<\/p>\n
\nAsh, Arlene S., Ellis,Randall P., Pope, Gregory C. et al. (2000) \u201cUsing diagnoses to describe populations and predict costs.\u201d <\/a> Health Care Financing Review<\/span>, Spring 21(3): 7-28.<\/p>\nWorking papers<\/h2>\n