In our examination of the macroeconomic conditions in Guatemala, understanding the population and demographics is key for evaluating the prospect of Finagle a Bagel entering the market. Guatemala is the most populous country in Central America and it has the highest fertility rate in all of Latin America. This is good for business. Let’s dig into more of the details though, before we make any conclusions.
Total Population: 14,918,999
Age Breakdown
0-14 years: 35.57%
15-24 years: 21.99%
25-54 years: 32.93%
55-64 years: 5.2%
65+ years: 4.31%
Population Growth Rate: 1.92%
Net Migration Rate: -1.97 migrants / 1,000 population
Major Urban Areas
Guatemala City: 2.918 million
Literacy Rate: 81.9%
Guatemala’s population trends younger overall, with the majority of the population under 15 years old. However, while the population continues to rise and is still the largest in the region, the overall population growth rate has been declining slightly in recent years. This is likely mostly due to a declining number of births per woman. Guatemalan women have started to have fewer babies each. Right now the majority of the population is under 15, but the segment that is showing the most growth is the 15-64 year old range. Guatemala will see this demographic grow as the under-15 demographic dips.
Population Growth Rate
Population Ages
Blue line is 15-64 years, red line is under 15 years, green line is over 64 years (% of total)
Births per Woman
The Guatemalan population is also changing in terms of location: higher numbers of people are concentrating in urban areas as opposed to rural areas. In the chart below, the red line is the rural population and the blue line is the urban population (% of total).
We see the Guatemalan population demographics as an appealing aspect of doing business there; a new fast-casual restaurant chain would fare well with the growing urban adult population. Determining the Guatemalan population’s affinity for bagels will be important for making our decision about Finagle a Bagel’s potential market entry. As will a breakdown of Guatemala’s GDP. View our findings here.