{"id":878,"date":"2021-08-12T22:38:33","date_gmt":"2021-08-13T02:38:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/?page_id=878"},"modified":"2021-08-12T22:38:33","modified_gmt":"2021-08-13T02:38:33","slug":"should-nba-teams-really-shoot-more-3s-april-13-2018","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/posts-written-at-ohio-state-univ\/blog-posts-written-at-ohio-state-univ\/should-nba-teams-really-shoot-more-3s-april-13-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Should NBA Teams Really Shoot More 3s? (April 13, 2018)"},"content":{"rendered":"

The NBA playoffs<\/a> are about to begin.\u00a0 Sports announcers and writers again will hype the game, especially long shots from outside the three point arc.\u00a0 The common refrain I hear is that teams should take more 3 pointers because they are worth 50% more than 2 pointers.<\/p>\n

This statement while factually correct is just plain wrong.<\/span><\/p>\n

A great example is Ben Cohen\u2019s Wall Street Journal article.<\/a>\u00a0 To explain why teams should be taking more 3s he quotes Golden State Warriors president of basketball operations Bob Myers saying \u201cThe idea that 3 points is 1.5 more times than 2 sounds simple, but it took a lot of time\u201d for NBA teams to understand.<\/p>\n

The idea that NBA basketball teams made a mental mistake until the Golden State Warriors\u2019 Steph Curry<\/a> came along and showed them the value of a three pointer is mistaken.\u00a0 The mistake comes from not understanding expected value.\u00a0 I talked about expected value in my post about risk (read it here<\/a> or here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

In simple terms, when dealing with any risky situation, which includes taking a shot in basketball, the key idea is to know both<\/strong> the chance success will occur (the shot goes in) and the payoff (how many points are scored).\u00a0 When the chance is multiplied by the payoff we get the \u201cexpected value\u201d of a situation.<\/p>\n

When a basketball player shoots for two points, they are typically much closer to the basket.\u00a0 Being closer improves the chance the shot goes in. NBA.com\u2019s stats page<\/a> at the end of the 2018 season shows the average team made 55.6% of shots from two point range.\u00a0 This means when the typical NBA team puts up a two point shot the coach expects that shot will boost the team\u2019s score by 55.6% X 2 points = 1.11 points.<\/p>\n

Being outside the three point arc makes the shot more difficult since it is farther away.\u00a0 Because it is more difficult an extra point is awarded.\u00a0 Being more difficult also reduces the chances the ball goes in.\u00a0 NBA.com\u2019s stats page<\/a> also shows the average team made 36.4% of shots from three point range.\u00a0 This means the expected value is 36.4% X 3 points = 1.09 points.<\/p>\n

For the typical NBA team it is not a simple trade-off.\u00a0 Currently, for most teams taking a three results in almost the exact same expected points as taking a two.<\/p>\n

However, not all teams are average.\u00a0 The reason why Golden State loves the three is that Steph Curry is well above average.\u00a0 His lifetime 3 point percentage<\/a> is currently 43.6%.\u00a0 While the typical NBA teams expects 1.09 points when their player shoots the three, Golden State expects 43.6% X 3 points = 1.31 points when Curry throws up a long range shot.<\/p>\n

While an extra 0.2 points doesn\u2019t seem like much, NBA teams take a lot of shots every game and that small advantage snowballs into a winning formula for Golden State.\u00a0 Golden State wins by taking long range shots.\u00a0 However, this doesn\u2019t mean every basketball player and team should start taking shots from center court.\u00a0 Being a consistent scorer down low to the basket can be a better strategy than being an inconsistent scorer from way outside.<\/p>\n

So what should anyone from NBA coaches to weekend warriors do with this information?\u00a0 It is pretty simple.\u00a0 Don\u2019t just count the points made.\u00a0 Count the number of shots too.\u00a0 With both numbers it is easy to calculate the percentage of shots made in 2 and 3 point range.\u00a0 Plug those two percentages into the expected value formula and it should be pretty obvious what kinds of shots you or any team you follow should take.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The NBA playoffs are about to begin.\u00a0 Sports announcers and writers again will hype the game, especially long shots from outside the three point arc.\u00a0 The common refrain I hear is that teams should take more 3 pointers because they are worth 50% more than 2 pointers. This statement while factually correct is just plain … Continue reading Should NBA Teams Really Shoot More 3s? (April 13, 2018)<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5335,"featured_media":0,"parent":785,"menu_order":8,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/878"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5335"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=878"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/878\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":879,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/878\/revisions\/879"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bu.edu\/zagorsky\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}