Research

Randall P. Ellis

Work in Progress

Working papers posted here are intended for review and comments only.

 

Luo, Siyi, Wenjia Zhu, and Randall P. Ellis (2017), An Iterative Approach to Estimation with Multiple High-Dimensional Fixed Effects. March 23, 2017. Supplementary SAS program: Luo, Siyi, Wenjia Zhu, and Randall P. Ellis (2016) SAS TSLSFECLUS.SAS Macro code               ReadMe.pdf file

Walter, Angela Wangari, Randall P. Ellis and Yiyang Yuan (2017) “Utilization, spending and financial risk among privately-insured families of children with medical complexity.” September.

Ellis, Randall P. (2016) The US Should Ban or Heavily Tax Weapons Designed for Mass Shootings. August 22, 2016.

Nishijima, Marislei, Randall P. Ellis, and Regina C. Cati (2016). Evaluating the Impact of Brazil’s Central Audit Program on Municipal Provision of Health Services. May 26.

Layton, Timothy J., Randall P. Ellis, Thomas McGuire (2015) Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems, NBER Working paper. July 12.

Other Research:

Ellis, Randall P., and Ching-To Albert Ma, (2015) “Two Health Economists’ Summary of Boston University’s Health Plan Choices for 2016.” (Compact handout.) November.

Publications

Forthcoming

Ellis, Randall P., Bruno Martins, and Sherri Rose (forthcoming) “Risk adjustment for health plan payment.”  Chapter 3 in Thomas G. McGuire and Richard van Kleef (eds.)  Risk Adjustment, Risk Sharing and Premium Regulation in Health Insurance Markets: Theory and Practice. Elsevier Press. September 27, 2017 working paper version.

Ellis, Randall P., Bruno Martins and Wenzia Zhu (forthcoming) Health care demand elasticities by type of service. Journal of Health Economics.

Ellis, Randall P. , Bruno Martins, and Wenjia Zhu (forthcoming) Demand elasticities and service selection incentives among competing private health plans. Journal of Health Economics.

Layton, Timothy J., Randall P. Ellis, Thomas G. McGuire, Richard van Kleef (forthcoming) Measuring efficiency of health plan payment systems in managed competition health insurance marketsJournal of Health Economics.

2017

Ash, Arlene S., Eric O. Mick,Randall P. Ellis, Catarina I. Kiefe, Jeroan J. Allison, and Melissa A. Clark, (2017) Social Determinants of Health in Managed Care Payment Formulas. Journal of the American Medical Association – Internal Medicine.  Published online August 07, 2017. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2017.3317

Ellis, Randall P., Sara S. Bachman, Hui Ren Tan,  (2017). Refining our Understanding of Value-Based Insurance Design and High Cost Sharing on Children. Pediatrics. May 2017, 139, S136-145. DOI: 10.1542/peds.2016-2786H

2016

Ellis, Randall P. and Wenjia Zhu (2016) Health Plan Type Variations in Spells of Health Care Treatment. American Journal of Health Economics. Fall, 2(4): 399-430.  Supplementary program: Ellis, Randall P. and Wenjia Zhu (2015) “Spellmaker2015 SAS program for creating spells of treatment.” March

Ellis, Randall P., Bruno Martins, and Michelle McKinnon Miller (2016) “Provider Payment Methods and Incentives” in H. Kris Heggenhougen and Stella Quah (eds.), International Encyclopedia of Public Health, Second edition.

Ellen Montz, Tim Layton, Alisa B. Busch, Randall P. Ellis, Sherri Rose, and Thomas G. McGuire (2016) Risk-Adjustment Simulation: Plans May Have Incentives To Distort Mental Health And Substance Use Coverage. Health Affairs. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.1668 (June) 35:6 1022-1028.

Ash, Arlene, Randall P. Ellis (2016) Commentary on “Comparison of the properties of regression and categorical risk-adjustment modelsJournal of Ambulatory Care Management. April/June. 39(2):97-183.

Cid,  Camilo, Randall P. Ellis; Verónica Vargas; Juergen Wasem; Lorena Prieto (2016) Global Risk-Adjusted Payment Models, in Richard Scheffler, (ed) Handbook of Global Health Economics and Public Policy. 11(1):311-362.

2015

Chen, Jing,  Randall P. Ellis,  Katherine H. Toro,  and Arlene S. Ash  (2015) Mispricing in Medicare Advantage Risk Adjustment. Inquiry.

Ellis, Randall P., Shenyi Jiang,  and Willard G. Manning (2015) Optimal health insurance for multiple goods and time periods. Journal of Health Economics.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2015.01.007

2014

Ellis, Randall P., Tianxu Chen, and Calvin E. Luscombe (2014) “Comparisons of Health Insurance Systems in Developed Countries” in Anthony J. Culyer (ed) Encyclopedia of Health Economics, Elsevier Press.

Ellis, Randall P., and Timothy Layton (2014) “Risk Selection and Risk Adjustment” in Anthony J. Culyer (ed) Encyclopedia of Health Economics, Elsevier Press.

2013

Vats, Sonal, Arlene S. Ash,  and Randall P. Ellis (2013) “Bending the Cost Curve? Results from a Comprehensive Primary Care Payment Pilot.” Medical Care. 51(11):964-969, November 2013.

Ellis, Randall P. and Juan Gabriel Fernandez (2013) “Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 10, 5299-5332

Ellis, Randall P., Denzil G. Fiebig, Meliyanni Johar, Glenn Jones, Elizabeth Savage (2013) “Explaining Health Care Expenditure Variation: Large Sample Evidence Using Linked Survey and Health Administrative DataHealth Economics. 22: 1093–1110.

2012

Ellis, Randall P., and  Ash, Arlene S. (2012) “Payments in Support of Effective Primary Care for Chronic Conditions.Nordic Economic Policy Review.

Ellis, Randall P., 2012, Five Questions for Health Economists. International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics.

Ellis, Randall P, Jiang, Shenyi, and Kuo, Tzu-chun, (2013)  “Does service-level spending show evidence of selection across health plan types?” Applied Economics.45(13):1701-1712.

Ash, Arlene and Randall P. Ellis (2012) Risk-Adjusted Payment and Performance Assessment for Primary Care. Medical Care.

Ellis, Randall P. and Ash, Arlene and  (2012) Risk-Adjusted Payment and Performance Assessment for Primary Care, Supplementary Digital Content. Medical Care.

Ellis, Randall P. (2012) “Risk Adjustment” in New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.

2011

Eggleston, Karen N,  Randall P. Ellis, and  Mingshan Lu, (2011) “Risk Adjustment and PreventionCanadian Journal of Economics.

Song Zirui S, Dana G Safran, Bruce E Landon, Yulie He, Randall P Ellis, Robert E Mechanic, Mathew P Day, and Michael E. Chernew (2011) “Health Care Spending and Quality in Year 1 of the Alternative Quality ContractNew England Journal of Medicine. July 13, 2011 (10.1056/NEJMsa1101416)

Ellis, Randall P. and Ching-to Albert Ma. (2011) “Health insurance, cost expectations, and job turnover.” Health Economics.

Older working papers.

Ash, Arlene S.,  Randall P. Ellis,  Andrea Kronman, and Allan H. Goroll, “Primary Care Financing Matters: A Roadmap for Reform.”

Aragao, Filipa, and  Randall P. Ellis, “Death spirals, switching costs, and health plan premium payments.”

Ellis, Randall P, and Pooja G. Mookim, (2010) “Cross-Validation Methods for Risk Adjustment Models”

Ellis, Randall P. and Manuel García-Goñii, (2010)  “Selection in Medicare HMOs: Absence of evidence from aged versus disabled payment rates.”

Mookim, Pooja G., Randall P. Ellis, and Ariella Kahn-Lang,  (2008) “Infertility Treatment, ART and IUI Procedures and Delivery Outcomes: How Important is Selection?”

2008

Ellis, Randall P. and Elizabeth Savage, (2008) “Run for Cover Now or Later? The impact of premiums, threats and deadlines on supplementary private health insurance in Australia” European Journal of Health Economics.

Ellis, Randall P. and Michelle M. Miller (2008) “Provider payment methods and incentives” in Heggenhougen, Kris (ed.) “Encyclopedia of Public Health” (reprinted in Guy Carrin, Kent Buse, Harald Kristian Heggenhougen, Stella R. Quah (eds.) (2009) Health Systems Policy, Finance, and Organization, (New York: Elsevier)

Ellis, Randall P. (2008) “Risk adjustment in health care markets: concepts and applications” in Lu, Mingshan, and Jonnson, Egon, (eds.) Financing Health Care: New Ideas for a Changing Society. Wiley-VCH publishers Weinheim, Germany.

2007
Ellis, Randall P., and Vidal-Fernandez, Marian (2007) “Activity-based payments and reforms of the English hospital payment system” Health Economics, Policy and Law. 2: 435–444.

Ellis, Randall P. and Manning, Willard G. (2007) Optimal health insurance for prevention and treatment, Journal of Health Economics. 26: 1128–1150.

Antioch, Kathryn, Ellis, Randall P., Gillett, Steve, Borovnicar, Daniel, and Marshall, Ric (2007) “Risk Adjustment Policy Options for Casemix Funding: International Lessons in Financing ReformEuropean Journal of Health Economics. DOI 10.1007/s10198-006-0020-7

Ellis, Randall P. and McGuire, Thomas G. (2007) “Predictability and predictiveness in health care spending” Journal of Health Economics. 26:25–48.

2005
Zhao, Yang, Ash, Arlene S., Ellis, Randall P., Ayanian, John Z., Pope, Gregory C., Bowen, Bruce and Weyuker, Lori (2005)
“Predicting pharmacy costs and other medical costs using diagnoses and drug claims” Medical Care, January 4(31): 34-43.

2004
Pope, Gregory C,Kautter, John, Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., Ayanian, John Z.,. Iezzoni, Lisa I. Ingber, Melvin J., Levy, Jesse M,. and Robst, John (2004) “Risk adjustment of Medicare capitation payments using the CMS-HCC model.” Health Care Financing Review.Summer 25(4): 119-141.

2002
Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “Les systèmes de tarification des hôpitaux aux États-Unis: généralités et débat sure les problèmes des politiques actuelles.” (Hospital payment in the United States: An overview and discussion of current policy issues) in Mireille Elbaum, ed., La tarification à la pathologie: les leçons de l’expérience étrangère, DREES conference volume, Paris France. July. In English. In French

Zhao, Yang, Ash, Arlene S. Ellis, Randall P., and Slaughter James P., (2002) “Disease burden profiles: An emerging tool for managing managed care” Health Care Management Science, August, 5(3): 211-219.

Shen, Yujing, and Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “Cost minimizing risk adjustment” Journal of Health Economics. 21(3): 515-530.

Shen Yujing, and Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “How profitable is risk selection? A comparison of four risk adjustment models” Health Economics, 11(2): 165-174

2001
Ash, Arlene, Zhao,Yang, Ellis,Randall P., and Kramer, Marilyn Schlein (2001) “Finding future high-cost cases: Comparing prior cost versus diagnosis-based methods” Health Services Research 26(6) Part II December: 194-206.

Ellis, Randall P. (2001) “Formal risk adjustment by private employers” Inquiry. 38(3) Fall, 299-309.

Yu, Wei, Ellis, Randall P., and Ash, Arlene S. .(2001) “Risk selection in the Massachusetts state employee health insurance program” Health Care Management Science. 4, pp. 281-287.

Zhao, Yang,  Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., et al. (2001) “Measuring population health risks using inpatient diagnoses and outpatient pharmacy data” Health Services Research. 26(6) Part II December: 180-193.

2000
Ash, Arlene S., Ellis,Randall P., Pope, Gregory C. et al. (2000) “Using diagnoses to describe populations and predict costs.” Health Care Financing Review, Spring 21(3): 7-28.

Chawla, Mukesh, and Ellis, Randall P., (2000) “Demand side analysis of health care financing and delivery in Niger.” Health Policy and Planning. 15(1):76-84.

Ellis, Randall P., Alam, Moneer, and Gupta, Indrani , (2000) “Health insurance in India: prognosis and prospectus.” Economics and Political Weekly, January 22, pp 207-217.

Khandker, Rahaul K, Dulski ,Jane D., Kilpatrick, Jeffrey B., Ellis, Randall P., Mitchell, Janet B., and Baine, William B. (2000) “Decision model and cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer screening and surveillance guidelines for average-risk adults”. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. 16(3):799-810.

Pope, Gregory C., Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., et al. (2000) “Principal inpatient diagnostic cost group models for Medicare risk adjustment” Health Care Financing Review, Spring 21(3): 93-118.

Van de Ven, Wynand  P.M.M. and Ellis, Randall P. (2000) “Risk adjustment in competitive health plan markets” Chapter 14 in A.J. Culyer and J.P. Newhouse, (ed.) Handbook in Health Economics, North Holland. pp. 755-845.

Last updated: October 7, 2013