Randall P. Ellis

Work in Progress

Working papers posted here are intended for review and comments only.

Layton, Timothy J., Randall P. Ellis, Thomas McGuire, Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems, July 12, 2015

Ash, Arlene S.,  Randall P. Ellis,  Andrea Kronman, and Allan H. Goroll, “Primary Care Financing Matters: A Roadmap for Reform.”

Aragao, Filipa, and  Randall P. Ellis, “Death spirals, switching costs, and health plan premium payments.”

Ellis, Randall P, and Pooja G. Mookim, “Cross-Validation Methods for Risk Adjustment Models”

Ellis, Randall P. and Manuel García-Goñii,  “Selection in Medicare HMOs: Absence of evidence from aged versus disabled payment rates.”

Mookim, Pooja G., Randall P. Ellis, and Ariella Kahn-Lang,  “Infertility Treatment, ART and IUI Procedures and Delivery Outcomes: How Important is Selection?”

Other Research:

Ellis, Randall P. and Wenjia Zhu. “Spellmaker2015 SAS program for creating spells of treatment.” March, 2015

Ellis, Randall P., and Ching-To Albert Ma, “Two Health Economists’ Summary of Boston University’s Health Plan Choices for 2016.” (Compact handout.) November, 2015.



Ellis, Randall P. and Wenjia Zhu, (Forthcoming) Health Plan Type Variations in Spells of Health Care Treatment. American Journal of Health Economics.

Cid,  Camilo, Randall P. Ellis; Verónica Vargas; Juergen Wasem; Lorena Prieto. (forthcoming) Global Risk-Adjusted Payment Models, in Richard Scheffler, (ed) Handbook of Global Health Economics and Public Policy. Chapter 11, Vol 1.

Ellis, Randall P., Michelle McKinnon Miller, and Bruno Martins (forthcoming) “Provider Payment Methods and Incentives” in H. Kris Heggenhougen and Stella Quah (eds.), International Encyclopedia of Public Health, Second edition.


Chen, Jing,  Randall P. Ellis,  Katherine H. Toro,  and Arlene S. Ash  (2015) Mispricing in Medicare Advantage Risk Adjustment. Inquiry.

Ellis, Randall P., Shenyi Jiang,  and Willard G. Manning. (2015) Optimal health insurance for multiple goods and time periods. Journal of Health Economics.


Ellis, Randall P., Tianxu Chen, and Calvin E. Luscombe. (2014) “Comparisons of Health Insurance Systems in Developed Countries” in Anthony J. Culyer (ed) Encyclopedia of Health Economics, Elsevier Press.

Ellis, Randall P., and Timothy Layton. (2014) “Risk Selection and Risk Adjustment” in Anthony J. Culyer (ed) Encyclopedia of Health Economics, Elsevier Press.


Vats, Sonal, Arlene S. Ash,  and Randall P. Ellis. (2013) “Bending the Cost Curve? Results from a Comprehensive Primary Care Payment Pilot.” Medical Care. 51(11):964-969, November 2013.

Ellis, Randall P. and Juan Gabriel Fernandez. (2013) “Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 10, 5299-5332

Ellis, Randall P., Denzil G. Fiebig, Meliyanni Johar, Glenn Jones, Elizabeth Savage (2013) “Explaining Health Care Expenditure Variation: Large Sample Evidence Using Linked Survey and Health Administrative DataHealth Economics. 22: 1093–1110.


Ellis, Randall P., and  Ash, Arlene S. (2012) “Payments in Support of Effective Primary Care for Chronic Conditions.Nordic Economic Policy Review.

Ellis, Randall P., 2012, Five Questions for Health Economists. International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics.

Ellis, Randall P, Jiang, Shenyi, and Kuo, Tzu-chun, (2013)  “Does service-level spending show evidence of selection across health plan types?” Applied Economics.45(13):1701-1712.

Ash, Arlene and Randall P. Ellis (2012) Risk-Adjusted Payment and Performance Assessment for Primary Care. Medical Care.

Ellis, Randall P. and Ash, Arlene and  (2012) Risk-Adjusted Payment and Performance Assessment for Primary Care, Supplementary Digital Content. Medical Care.

Ellis, Randall P. (2012) “Risk Adjustment” in New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.


Eggleston, Karen N, Ellis, Randall P., and  Lu, Mingshan, (2011) “Risk Adjustment and PreventionCanadian Journal of Economics.

Song ZS, Dana G Safran, Bruce E Landon, Yulie He, Randall P Ellis, Robert E Mechanic, Mathew P Day, and Michael E. Chernew (2011) “Health Care Spending and Quality in Year 1 of the Alternative Quality ContractNew England Journal of Medicine. July 13, 2011 (10.1056/NEJMsa1101416)

Ellis, Randall P. and Ching-to Albert Ma. (2011) “Health insurance, cost expectations, and job turnover.” Health Economics.


Ellis, Randall P. and Elizabeth Savage, (2008) “Run for Cover Now or Later? The impact of premiums, threats and deadlines on supplementary private health insurance in Australia” European Journal of Health Economics.

Ellis, Randall P. and Michelle M. Miller (2008) “Provider payment methods and incentives” in Heggenhougen, Kris (ed.) “Encyclopedia of Public Health” (reprinted in Guy Carrin, Kent Buse, Harald Kristian Heggenhougen, Stella R. Quah (eds.) (2009) Health Systems Policy, Finance, and Organization, (New York: Elsevier)

Ellis, Randall P. (2008) “Risk adjustment in health care markets: concepts and applications” in Lu, Mingshan, and Jonnson, Egon, (eds.) Financing Health Care: New Ideas for a Changing Society. Wiley-VCH publishers Weinheim, Germany.

Ellis, Randall P., and Vidal-Fernandez, Marian (2007) “Activity-based payments and reforms of the English hospital payment system” Health Economics, Policy and Law. 2: 435–444.

Ellis, Randall P. and Manning, Willard G. (2007) Optimal health insurance for prevention and treatment, Journal of Health Economics. 26: 1128–1150.

Antioch, Kathryn, Ellis, Randall P., Gillett, Steve, Borovnicar, Daniel, and Marshall, Ric (2007) “Risk Adjustment Policy Options for Casemix Funding: International Lessons in Financing ReformEuropean Journal of Health Economics. DOI 10.1007/s10198-006-0020-7

Ellis, Randall P. and McGuire, Thomas G. (2007) “Predictability and predictiveness in health care spending” Journal of Health Economics. 26:25–48.

Zhao, Yang, Ash, Arlene S., Ellis, Randall P., Ayanian, John Z., Pope, Gregory C., Bowen, Bruce and Weyuker, Lori (2005)
“Predicting pharmacy costs and other medical costs using diagnoses and drug claims” Medical Care, January 4(31): 34-43.

Pope, Gregory C,Kautter, John, Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., Ayanian, John Z.,. Iezzoni, Lisa I. Ingber, Melvin J., Levy, Jesse M,. and Robst, John (2004) “Risk adjustment of Medicare capitation payments using the CMS-HCC model.” Health Care Financing Review.Summer 25(4): 119-141.

Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “Les systèmes de tarification des hôpitaux aux États-Unis: généralités et débat sure les problèmes des politiques actuelles.” (Hospital payment in the United States: An overview and discussion of current policy issues) in Mireille Elbaum, ed., La tarification à la pathologie: les leçons de l’expérience étrangère, DREES conference volume, Paris France. July. In English. In French

Zhao, Yang, Ash, Arlene S. Ellis, Randall P., and Slaughter James P., (2002) “Disease burden profiles: An emerging tool for managing managed care” Health Care Management Science, August, 5(3): 211-219.

Shen, Yujing, and Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “Cost minimizing risk adjustment” Journal of Health Economics. 21(3): 515-530.

Shen Yujing, and Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “How profitable is risk selection? A comparison of four risk adjustment models” Health Economics, 11(2): 165-174

Ash, Arlene, Zhao,Yang, Ellis,Randall P., and Kramer, Marilyn Schlein (2001) “Finding future high-cost cases: Comparing prior cost versus diagnosis-based methods” Health Services Research 26(6) Part II December: 194-206.

Ellis, Randall P. (2001) “Formal risk adjustment by private employers” Inquiry. 38(3) Fall, 299-309.

Yu, Wei, Ellis, Randall P., and Ash, Arlene S. .(2001) “Risk selection in the Massachusetts state employee health insurance program” Health Care Management Science. 4, pp. 281-287.

Zhao, Yang,  Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., et al. (2001) “Measuring population health risks using inpatient diagnoses and outpatient pharmacy data” Health Services Research. 26(6) Part II December: 180-193.

Ash, Arlene S., Ellis,Randall P., Pope, Gregory C. et al. (2000) “Using diagnoses to describe populations and predict costs.” Health Care Financing Review, Spring 21(3): 7-28.

Chawla, Mukesh, and Ellis, Randall P., (2000) “Demand side analysis of health care financing and delivery in Niger.” Health Policy and Planning. 15(1):76-84.

Ellis, Randall P., Alam, Moneer, and Gupta, Indrani , (2000) “Health insurance in India: prognosis and prospectus.” Economics and Political Weekly, January 22, pp 207-217.

Khandker, Rahaul K, Dulski ,Jane D., Kilpatrick, Jeffrey B., Ellis, Randall P., Mitchell, Janet B., and Baine, William B. (2000) “Decision model and cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer screening and surveillance guidelines for average-risk adults”. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. 16(3):799-810.

Pope, Gregory C., Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., et al. (2000) “Principal inpatient diagnostic cost group models for Medicare risk adjustment” Health Care Financing Review, Spring 21(3): 93-118.

Van de Ven, Wynand  P.M.M. and Ellis, Randall P. (2000) “Risk adjustment in competitive health plan markets” Chapter 14 in A.J. Culyer and J.P. Newhouse, (ed.) Handbook in Health Economics, North Holland. pp. 755-845.

Last updated: October 7, 2013