Randall P. Ellis

Work in Progress

Working papers posted here are intended for review and comments only.

Randall Ellis (2023) “The role of incentives at the design stage of risk adjusters: dos and don’ts”

Ellis, Randall P., and Giovanna Marcolongo (2020). The Early Toll of Covid-19 on Job and Income Losses: Vulnerability by Occupation. Working paper. April 17.

Ellis, Randall P, and Izabela Jelovac (2019). “Movie theater popcorn pricing, the physician’s Hippocratic Oath, and healthcare innovation” Working paper.

Luo, Siyi, Wenjia Zhu, and Randall P. Ellis (2017) An Iterative Approach to Estimation with Multiple High-Dimensional Fixed Effects. March 23, 2017. Supplementary SAS program: Luo, Siyi, Wenjia Zhu, and Randall P. Ellis (2016) SAS TSLSFECLUS.SAS Macro code               ReadMe.pdf file



Andriola, Corinne, Randall P Ellis, Jeffrey J Siracuse, Alex Hoagland, Tzu-Chun Kuo, Heather E Hsu, Allan Walkey, Karen E Lasser, Arlene S Ash (2024).  “A Novel Machine Learning Algorithm for Creating Risk-adjusted Payment Formulas” JAMA Health Forum, Apr 5;5(4):e240625.

van Kleef, Richard C., Mieke Reuser, Thomas G. McGuire, John Armstrong, Konstantin Beck, Shuli Brammli-Greenberg, Randall P. Ellis, Francesco Paolucci, Erik Schokkaert, Juergen Wasem, (2024)  Scope and Incentives for Risk Selection in Health Insurance Markets With Regulated Competition: A Conceptual Framework and International Comparison. Medical Care Research and Review. 2024;0(0). doi:10.1177/10775587231222584

Acquatella, Angelique, Tianxu Chen, Randall P Ellis, and Taylor Watson (forthcoming). “Provider Payment Systems and Incentives” in Stella R. Quah, (Ed.) International Encyclopedia of Public Health, Third Edition.


Ellis Randall P, Alex Hoagland, and Angelique Acquatella. (2023)  Managed competition in the United States: How well is it promoting equity and efficiency? Health Economics, Policy and Law. Published online 2024:1-15. doi:10.1017/S174413312300035X


Ellis, Randall P, Heather E Hsu, Jeffrey J Siracuse, Allan J Walkey, Karen E Lasser, Brian C Jacobson, Corinne Andriola, Alex Hoagland, Ying Liu, Chenlu Song, Tzu-Chun Kuo, and Arlene S Ash (2022) “Development and Assessment of a New Framework for Disease Surveillance, Prediction, and Risk Adjustment: The Diagnostic Items Classification System.JAMA Health Forum. 2022;3(3):e220276. doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2022.0276.

Nishijima, Marislei, Randall P Ellis, and Regina C Cati (2022). “Primary healthcare effects of a well-designed anti-corruption programWorld Development Perspectives. 25, 100399, ISSN 2452-2929,

Ellis, Randall P, (2022) Comment on “Sustainable Health Financing for COVID ‐19 Preparedness and Response in Asia and the Pacific” Asian Economic Policy Review 17(1):157-158 Jan 2022.


Siracuse, Jeffrey J, Jonathan Woodson, Randall P Ellis, Alik Farber, Sean P. Roddy, Bindu Kalesan, Scott R Levin, Nicholas H Osborne, and Jayakanth Srinivasan. “Intermittent claudication treatment patterns in the commercially insured non-Medicare population.” Journal of Vascular Surgery 74, no. 2 (2021): 499-504.


Ellis, Randall P, Heather E Hsu, Chenlu Song, Tzu-Chun Kuo, Bruno Martins, Jeffrey J Siracuse, MD, Ying Liu, Arlene S Ash, (2020) “Diagnostic Category Prevalence in 3 Classification Systems Across the Transition to the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification” JAMA Network Open. April 8. 3(4), e202280-e202280.


Walter, Angela W, Ellis Randall P, Yuan Yiyang (2019) “Health care utilization and spending among privately insured children with medical complexity.Journal of Child Health Care 23(2):213-231 June.


Ellis, Randall P., Bruno Martins, and Sherri Rose (2018) Risk adjustment for health plan payment.  Chapter 3 in Thomas G. McGuire and Richard C. van Kleef (eds.)  Risk adjustment, risk sharing and premium regulation in health insurance markets: Theory and Practice. Elsevier Press. Posted version is the November 7, 2017 working paper

Layton, Timothy J., Randall P. Ellis, Thomas G. McGuire, and Richard C. van Kleef (2018) Evaluating the performance of health plan payment systems. Chapter 5 in Thomas G. McGuire and Richard C. van Kleef (eds.)  Risk Adjustment, Risk Sharing and Premium Regulation in Health Insurance Markets: Theory and Practice. Elsevier Press. Posted version is the February 2018 working paper.


Ellis, Randall P. , Bruno Martins, and Wenjia Zhu (2017) Demand elasticities and service selection incentives among competing private health plans. Journal of Health Economics. 56: 352-367.

Layton, Timothy J., Randall P. Ellis, Thomas G. McGuire, Richard C. van Kleef (2017) Measuring efficiency of health plan payment systems in managed competition health insurance marketsJournal of Health Economics. 56: 237-255.

Ellis, Randall P., Bruno Martins and Wenjia Zhu (2017) Health care demand elasticities by type of service. Journal of Health Economics. 55:232-242.

Ash, Arlene S., Eric O. Mick,Randall P. Ellis, Catarina I. Kiefe, Jeroan J. Allison, and Melissa A. Clark, (2017) Social Determinants of Health in Managed Care Payment Formulas. Journal of the American Medical Association – Internal Medicine.  Published online August 07, 2017. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2017.3317.    Supplementary material.

Ellis, Randall P., Sara S. Bachman, Hui Ren Tan,  (2017). Refining our Understanding of Value-Based Insurance Design and High Cost Sharing on Children. Pediatrics. May, 139, S136-145. DOI: 10.1542/peds.2016-2786H

Other Recent Research:

Vidal-Fernandez, Marian, Denise Doiron, and Randall P. Ellis (2017) The Effects (?) of Artificially Fluoridated Water on Birth Outcomes. April.

Layton, Timothy J., Randall P. Ellis, Thomas McGuire (2015) Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems, NBER Working paper. July 12.

Ellis, Randall P. (2016) The US Should Ban or Heavily Tax Weapons Designed for Mass Shootings. August 22, 2016.

Ellis, Randall P., and Ching-To Albert Ma, (2015) Two Health Economists’ Summary of Boston University’s Health Plan Choices for 2016.  (Compact handout.) November.


Ellis, Randall P. and Wenjia Zhu (2016) Health Plan Type Variations in Spells of Health Care Treatment. American Journal of Health Economics. Fall, 2(4): 399-430.  doi:10.1162/ajhe a 00056 Supplementary program: Ellis, Randall P. and Wenjia Zhu (2015) “Spellmaker2015 SAS program for creating spells of treatment.” March

Ellis, Randall P., Bruno Martins, and Michelle McKinnon Miller (2016) Provider Payment Methods and Incentives in  Stella Quah (ed.), International Encyclopedia of Public Health, Second edition.

Ellen Montz, Tim Layton, Alisa B. Busch, Randall P. Ellis, Sherri Rose, and Thomas G. McGuire (2016) Risk-Adjustment Simulation: Plans May Have Incentives To Distort Mental Health And Substance Use Coverage. Health Affairs. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.1668 (June) 35:6 1022-1028.

Ash, Arlene, Randall P. Ellis (2016) Commentary on “Comparison of the properties of regression and categorical risk-adjustment modelsJournal of Ambulatory Care Management. April/June. 39(2):97-183.

Cid,  Camilo, Randall P. Ellis; Verónica Vargas; Juergen Wasem; Lorena Prieto (2016) Global Risk-Adjusted Payment Models, in Richard Scheffler, (ed) Handbook of Global Health Economics and Public Policy. 11(1):311-362.


Chen, Jing,  Randall P. Ellis,  Katherine H. Toro,  and Arlene S. Ash  (2015) Mispricing in Medicare Advantage Risk Adjustment. Inquiry.

Ellis, Randall P., Shenyi Jiang,  and Willard G. Manning (2015) Optimal health insurance for multiple goods and time periods. Journal of Health Economics.  41(May): 89-106.


Ellis, Randall P., Tianxu Chen, and Calvin E. Luscombe (2014) “Comparisons of Health Insurance Systems in Developed Countries” in Anthony J. Culyer (ed) Encyclopedia of Health Economics, Elsevier Press.

Ellis, Randall P., and Timothy Layton (2014) “Risk Selection and Risk Adjustment” in Anthony J. Culyer (ed) Encyclopedia of Health Economics, Elsevier Press.


Vats, Sonal, Arlene S. Ash,  and Randall P. Ellis (2013) “Bending the Cost Curve? Results from a Comprehensive Primary Care Payment Pilot.” Medical Care. 51(11):964-969, November 2013.

Ellis, Randall P. and Juan Gabriel Fernandez (2013) “Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 10, 5299-5332

Ellis, Randall P., Denzil G. Fiebig, Meliyanni Johar, Glenn Jones, Elizabeth Savage (2013) “Explaining Health Care Expenditure Variation: Large Sample Evidence Using Linked Survey and Health Administrative DataHealth Economics. 22: 1093–1110.


Ellis, Randall P., and  Ash, Arlene S. (2012) “Payments in Support of Effective Primary Care for Chronic Conditions.” Nordic Economic Policy Review.

Ellis, Randall P., (2012), Five Questions for Health Economists. International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics.

Ellis, Randall P, Jiang, Shenyi, and Kuo, Tzu-chun, (2013)  “Does service-level spending show evidence of selection across health plan types?” Applied Economics.45(13):1701-1712.

Ash, Arlene and Randall P. Ellis (2012) Risk-Adjusted Payment and Performance Assessment for Primary Care. Medical Care.

Ellis, Randall P. and Ash, Arlene and  (2012) Risk-Adjusted Payment and Performance Assessment for Primary Care, Supplementary Digital Content. Medical Care.

Ellis, Randall P. (2012) “Risk Adjustment” in New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.


Eggleston, Karen N,  Randall P. Ellis, and  Mingshan Lu, (2011) “Risk Adjustment and PreventionCanadian Journal of Economics.

Song Zirui S, Dana G Safran, Bruce E Landon, Yulie He, Randall P Ellis, Robert E Mechanic, Mathew P Day, and Michael E. Chernew (2011) “Health Care Spending and Quality in Year 1 of the Alternative Quality ContractNew England Journal of Medicine. July 13, 2011 (10.1056/NEJMsa1101416)

Ellis, Randall P., and Ching-to Albert Ma. (2011) “Health insurance, cost expectations, and job turnover.” Health Economics.

Older working papers.

Ash, Arlene S.,  Randall P. Ellis,  Andrea Kronman, and Allan H. Goroll, “Primary Care Financing Matters: A Roadmap for Reform.”

Aragao, Filipa, and  Randall P. Ellis, “Death spirals, switching costs, and health plan premium payments.”

Ellis, Randall P, and Pooja G. Mookim, (2010) “Cross-Validation Methods for Risk Adjustment Models”

Ellis, Randall P. and Manuel García-Goñii, (2010)  “Selection in Medicare HMOs: Absence of evidence from aged versus disabled payment rates.”

Mookim, Pooja G., Randall P. Ellis, and Ariella Kahn-Lang,  (2008) “Infertility Treatment, ART and IUI Procedures and Delivery Outcomes: How Important is Selection?”


Ellis, Randall P. and Elizabeth Savage, (2008) “Run for Cover Now or Later? The impact of premiums, threats and deadlines on supplementary private health insurance in Australia” European Journal of Health Economics.

Ellis, Randall P. and Michelle M. Miller (2008) “Provider payment methods and incentives” in Heggenhougen, Kris (ed.) “Encyclopedia of Public Health” (reprinted in Guy Carrin, Kent Buse, Harald Kristian Heggenhougen, Stella R. Quah (eds.) (2009) Health Systems Policy, Finance, and Organization, (New York: Elsevier)

Ellis, Randall P. (2008) “Risk adjustment in health care markets: concepts and applications” in Lu, Mingshan, and Jonnson, Egon, (eds.) Financing Health Care: New Ideas for a Changing Society. Wiley-VCH publishers Weinheim, Germany.

Ellis, Randall P., and Vidal-Fernandez, Marian (2007) “Activity-based payments and reforms of the English hospital payment system” Health Economics, Policy and Law. 2: 435–444.

Ellis, Randall P. and Manning, Willard G. (2007) Optimal health insurance for prevention and treatment, Journal of Health Economics. 26: 1128–1150.

Antioch, Kathryn, Ellis, Randall P., Gillett, Steve, Borovnicar, Daniel, and Marshall, Ric (2007) “Risk Adjustment Policy Options for Casemix Funding: International Lessons in Financing Reform” European Journal of Health Economics. DOI 10.1007/s10198-006-0020-7

Ellis, Randall P. and McGuire, Thomas G. (2007) “Predictability and predictiveness in health care spending” Journal of Health Economics. 26:25–48.

Zhao, Yang, Ash, Arlene S., Ellis, Randall P., Ayanian, John Z., Pope, Gregory C., Bowen, Bruce and Weyuker, Lori (2005)
“Predicting pharmacy costs and other medical costs using diagnoses and drug claims” Medical Care, January 4(31): 34-43.

Pope, Gregory C,Kautter, John, Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., Ayanian, John Z.,. Iezzoni, Lisa I. Ingber, Melvin J., Levy, Jesse M,. and Robst, John (2004) “Risk adjustment of Medicare capitation payments using the CMS-HCC model.” Health Care Financing Review.Summer 25(4): 119-141.

Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “Les systèmes de tarification des hôpitaux aux États-Unis: généralités et débat sure les problèmes des politiques actuelles.” (Hospital payment in the United States: An overview and discussion of current policy issues) in Mireille Elbaum, ed., La tarification à la pathologie: les leçons de l’expérience étrangère, DREES conference volume, Paris France. July. In English. In French

Zhao, Yang, Ash, Arlene S. Ellis, Randall P., and Slaughter James P., (2002) “Disease burden profiles: An emerging tool for managing managed care” Health Care Management Science, August, 5(3): 211-219.

Shen, Yujing, and Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “Cost minimizing risk adjustment” Journal of Health Economics. 21(3): 515-530.

Shen Yujing, and Ellis, Randall P. (2002) “How profitable is risk selection? A comparison of four risk adjustment models” Health Economics, 11(2): 165-174

Ash, Arlene, Zhao,Yang, Ellis,Randall P., and Kramer, Marilyn Schlein (2001) “Finding future high-cost cases: Comparing prior cost versus diagnosis-based methods” Health Services Research 26(6) Part II December: 194-206.

Ellis, Randall P. (2001) “Formal risk adjustment by private employers” Inquiry. 38(3) Fall, 299-309.

Yu, Wei, Ellis, Randall P., and Ash, Arlene S. .(2001) “Risk selection in the Massachusetts state employee health insurance program” Health Care Management Science. 4, pp. 281-287.

Zhao, Yang,  Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., et al. (2001) “Measuring population health risks using inpatient diagnoses and outpatient pharmacy data” Health Services Research. 26(6) Part II December: 180-193.

Ash, Arlene S., Ellis,Randall P., Pope, Gregory C. et al. (2000) “Using diagnoses to describe populations and predict costs.” Health Care Financing Review, Spring 21(3): 7-28.

Chawla, Mukesh, and Ellis, Randall P., (2000) “Demand side analysis of health care financing and delivery in Niger.” Health Policy and Planning. 15(1):76-84.

Ellis, Randall P., Alam, Moneer, and Gupta, Indrani , (2000) “Health insurance in India: prognosis and prospectus.” Economics and Political Weekly, January 22, pp 207-217.

Khandker, Rahaul K, Dulski ,Jane D., Kilpatrick, Jeffrey B., Ellis, Randall P., Mitchell, Janet B., and Baine, William B. (2000) “A Decision model and cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer screening and surveillance guidelines for average-risk adults”. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. 16(3):799-810.

Pope, Gregory C., Ellis, Randall P., Ash, Arlene S., et al. (2000) “Principal inpatient diagnostic cost group models for Medicare risk adjustment” Health Care Financing Review, Spring 21(3): 93-118.

Van de Ven, Wynand  P.M.M. and Ellis, Randall P. (2000) “Risk adjustment in competitive health plan markets” Chapter 14 in A.J. Culyer and J.P. Newhouse, (ed.) Handbook in Health Economics, North Holland. pp. 755-845.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *